In an article published on SeekingAlpha, AeroAnalysis has revisited the current state of the Boeing 747-8 program.
Due to slower than anticipated recovery on the air cargo market, Boeing did not see demand for the Boeing 747-8I materialize. For a long time the jet maker relied on recovery of the market, but as it ate through its backlog that recovery was never fast enough. This has forced Boeing to announce a series of rate cuts, with the latest cut being from 1 aircraft per month to 0.5 aircraft per month. The cut is remarkable, since the jet maker once deemed the production of 1 airframe a month as the absolute sustainable minimum.
AeroAnalysis has concluded that 8 out of 15 aircraft, likel will never be delivered. On the other hand Boeing could soon add 4 orders for the jumbo jet from Iran Air, 2 of which will likely be new builts. Another 13 aircraft are likely to be firmed up by AirBridge Cargo at low rates.
Orders from Iran and AirBridge Cargo could add 15 units to the backlog. Since the cargo carrier plans on taking delivery of only 2-3 aircraft a year, Boeing needs to find customers for another 2-3 annually to fill its slots.