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Each year, Boeing  and Airbus engage in a fierce order battle. In 2017, Airbus won that battle by numbers, but in terms of dollar value, which AeroAnalysis ultimately considers to be more important, Boeing easily outperformed Airbus.

For 2018, Airbus expects to maintain a book-to-bill ratio of 1. By looking at the orders, we can see a combination of willingness to commit, pricing, product, and availability come together. Special attention will be paid to the mix of single-aisle aircraft and widebody aircraft, knowing that a single-aisle aircraft costs roughly half or a third of a wide-body aircraft depending on the model.

In this report, AeroAnalysis will be having a look at the order inflow and deliveries for Airbus in June. The May report can be read here if you are a PRO subscriber or is freely available to our Premium subscribers.

Order inflow June 2018

Figure 1: Orders Airbus June 2018

During the month of June, Airbus received a total of 100 orders:

  • An undisclosed customer ordered 20 Airbus A320neo aircraft.
  • Aegean Airlines ordered 20 Airbus A320neo aircraft and 10 Airbus A321neo aircraft.
  • Lufthansa (OTCQX:DLAKF) ordered 3 Airbus A320ceo aircraft after having already ordered 3 in the previous month.
  • International Airlines Group ordered 2 Airbus A330-200 aircraft.
  • An undisclosed customer ordered 10 Airbus A330-900neo aircraft.
  • An earlier commitment from Turkish Airlines for 25 Airbus A350-900 aircraft has been finalized.
  • An unidentified customer ordered 10 Airbus A350-900 aircraft.

In June, we finally saw the Airbus sales machine back in action. The European jet maker booked 3 current generation single aisle orders, 50 next generation single aisle orders and 47 wide body orders including orders for the Airbus A350 and Airbus A330neo. Some of these orders are from undisclosed customers and we might see these customers being revealed at the upcoming Farnborough Airshow. For Airbus, the strong June month is a welcome one because it means that all of their aircraft programs are back in positive territory for the year and that means that order news on the Farnborough Airshow will not suffer any overhang from negative net orders.

So far order numbers have not been blowing us away, but comparing the first 6 months this year to last year we observed that order inflow increased by 13 units and net orders improved by 3 units. Orders definitely are not the correct metric to measure current performance, but with all the negativity surrounding the Airbus A320neo program and slow wide body sales you would almost get the impression that Airbus is not getting any orders or at least less orders while the contrary is true.

Last year, Airbus received 138 orders in June which included widebody orders, while 8 orders were canceled. In June 2016, Airbus received 27 orders while 6 aircraft on order were scratched from the order book. Averaging the net orders for the previous two years shows that with 95 orders the net order inflow was above the average of 75-76 orders in June.

For June, the list price of the orders was $20.6B, but after discount, this likely is closer to $9.6B.

Deliveries in June 2018

Figure 2: Deliveries Airbus June 2018

For 2018, Airbus has set a delivery target of 800 units. In June, Airbus delivered 100 aircraft or 10 percent of the aircraft it expects to deliver in 2018:

  • There were 2 Airbus A380 deliveries in June.
  • Airbus delivered 8 Airbus A350, slightly lower than the production rate of 10 aircraft per month (11 month cycle) that it hit in April on industry side. A higher load efficiency is expected towards year end.
  • Airbus delivered 3 Airbus A330 aircraft, which is slightly lower than the 5 deliveries expected on average each month.
  • Deliveries for the Airbus A320 families were 26 current engine option aircraft and 41 new engine option aircraft.

Year over year, Airbus deliveries in the first 6 months decreased by 3 units decreasing the gap compared to 1 month ago when the decrease was 19 units. The decrease can be attributed to lower deliveries of the Airbus A320ceo family deliveries, which are not being offset by neo deliveries and lower A330 and A380 deliveries, which are not fully offset by higher Airbus A350 deliveries.

A320neo family deliveries increased by 19 units during the month, which can be considered a positive. Compared to the annual delivery target, Airbus closed the gap somewhat but we continue believing that a slight schedule slip on the Airbus A320neo program could result in Airbus missing its delivery target.

Book-to-bill ratio

For 2018, Airbus expects to maintain a book-to-bill ratio of 1. For Airbus, reaching desired book-to-bill ratios doesn’t seem like a big challenge, but there should be more emphasis on capturing more widebody orders in the mix, especially given the challenges Airbus is facing with the Airbus A320neo. Looking at the monthly book-to-bill ratios does not say a lot, but you have to start somewhere. In June, Airbus booked 100 gross orders while delivering 80 aircraft indicating a 1.25 gross book-to-bill ratio. In terms of value, this ratio was 1.84. For the first 6 months, the gross book-to-bill ratio is .86 and 1.03 in terms of value, which reflects an delivery inflow for the wide body aircraft. A strong Farnborough Airshow order rain could help the European jet maker in pushing its gross book-to-bill above one.

Conclusion

In June, the highlight was the order for 35 Airbus A350s marking the second month in a row for Airbus with order inflow for the Airbus A350. Airbus also received its first orders for the Airbus A330neo since December 2017. For Airbus, the main objective should not be booking orders to get to the desired book-to-bill ratio but to roll out the jets without delays. On the Airbus A320neo program, fully restoring the delivery profile is key.

As we previously anticipated, deliveries peaked at the end of the quarter and we continue to believe that Airbus will be ramping up deliveries towards year-end. We are slightly more confident in Airbus’ ability to push out enough single aisle aircraft to reach its delivery target, but we also need to point out that even the slightest of delays or new problems could dent the delivery target significantly. So Airbus needs a perfect second half of the year to reach its targets.