Iran Air ordered a total of 80 aircraft with a catalog value of $17.6bn. Over 40% of the order was for a wide body aircraft, beating AeroAnalysis’ expectations of a 65-35 split between narrow and wide body aircraft.
AeroAnalysis estimates for the order composition used a composition comparable to that of the order Iran placed with Airbus.
The main differences between the AeroAnalysis estimate and the actual expected order composition are the following:
- The actual order will be for 80 units in a sales agreement and 29 aircraft to be leased, totaling 109 aircraft. This is above my expectation of 90 aircraft and 9 aircraft shy of the number of aircraft Iran ordered with Airbus.
- Iran has a preference for Boeing’s new narrow body product. This feeds the thought that the Airbus A320ceo that Iran ordered were acquired at end-of-production prices.
- The Boeing 787 was not part of the deal, while it was initially pitched to Iran. The absence of early delivery slots likely is the reason for this absence.
- The total value of the order is $17.6bn, whereas I expected it to be around $22bn. This $4.4bn difference is caused by the Dreamliner not being part of the deal.
All with all, Boeing and Iran will be happy with the deal. AeroAnalysis notes that the deal is far from final and needs to gain approval . Some Congressmen already are trying to block the deal. This politically motivated objection is a threat to the deal.