In two previous articles, AeroAnalysis had a look at how many commitments actually do materialize for Boeing and Airbus and how long it takes to reach a certain percentage of commitments that are announced during air shows to be firmed up.
From analysis of the 2017 Paris Airshow announced commitments and the order books of Airbus (EADSF) and Boeing (BA), it was found that between 30 and 40 percent of the commitments did indeed materialize just five months after the air show.
A similar analysis was also performed on commitments announced during the Farnborough Airshow of 2016, which took place 14 months ago and observed that between 60 and 90 percent of the commitments did indeed result in a firm order within 14 months of the airshow.
Finally, a third airshow, the Paris Airshow 2015, was covered and the following overall results were found:
The general perception is that Boeing does a better job firming orders and that Airbus presents more risky orders and orders that have a low probability to be firmed up any time soon. The results from hours of research for three airshows in the past 2.5 years are shown below and the results… they might be considered surprising.
What can be seen is that Boeing has signed more MoUs. I think this is partly caused by the launch of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 this year during the Paris Air Show where it is suspected that Boeing has tried to create a lot of momentum for the MAX 10 by putting effort in accumulating MoUs instead of putting effort in finalizing deals. What we are seeing is that Boeing has not only accumulated more commitments, a role many had reserved for Airbus, but it also finalized a lower percentage of those commitments: 50% for Boeing and 65% for Airbus and 55% for both jet makers combined.
These figures are impacted by 90 commitments from Garuda Indonesia, which seemed to have had a somewhat reckless approach to signing MoUs then these percentages would change to over 50% for Boeing, almost 70% for Airbus and almost 60% for the combination.
Findings support that the majority of the commitments do materialize, though with hundreds of commitments during this year’s Dubai Airshow having a percentage higher than 60% would be desired, preferably in the 80%-90% region.